“Is this a COVID election?”
August 10, 2020
By NZB3
The battle lines are drawn between two narratives for New Zealand’s 2020 General Election. They could change, and that would be less boring, but I think these two competing scripts are here to stay now.
It will come down to which story the voters believe. Is it National’s story about who they are and who Labour are? Or, will the voter believe Labour’s story about who they are and who National are?
The National Party will win this election if most people agree with their narrative that it’s time to get back to work and get back to play; It’s time to recover. National will accuse Labour of hiding under the sick bed, hiding behind COVID-19, afraid to come out and look the world in the teeth.
Labour, on the other hand, will say that National have a dangerous and cavalier attitude toward a global threat that could end us all. They will accuse National of squandering New Zealand’s sacrifice. Labour would love to catch Judith Collins or one of her people in the act of acting smugly or unseriously. Last weekend, the Prime Minister made this election strategy more clear than ever before…
““When people ask, is this a Covid election, my answer is yes, it is,” Ardern told her supporters in Auckland Saturday. The prime minister has said no one wants it to be, “but it has been our new reality, and one that the team of 5 million have made work in the most extraordinary way”.”- Jacinda Ardern campaign launch; The Guardian (Aug 2020)
Both National and Labour have left themselves room to amp up both of these perspectives in the coming weeks. They can’t peak too early, they’ll drop some of their best lines and bombs in September as election day draws near.
Labour is convinced it has the initiative and will make being un-engaging into a zen-like art. All they have to do is hold this status quo long enough and they’ll be re-elected. If National can make the election about policy then they’ll win but are frustrated because Labour know that and will not come to the microphone.
Labour are the current champion of Paper/Scissors/Rock and wisely refuse to make it the Best of Three. They don’t want to play. They just want to run out the clock and not loose. This is their dominant Game Theory strategy so I don’t think anything’s going to change in the election from this point on.
If, by some chance, perhaps because of how a policy debate or leader’s debate plays out, Labour do engage then it will be an act of desperation. They’ll know their story about COVID has failed and that they’re going to loose and will simply be trying to minimise losses. At that point, I’ll call the election in National’s favour. The only thing that would save Labour would be for them to create another Lockdown which they will also only do if they’re about to lose.
It’s very hard to beat someone in a fight if they refuse to fight you. If National has a breakthrough then it will probably because of a breakdown in party discipline. A Labour MP or new candidate might accidentally front-up about something and start a landslide.
If I were Labour I’d be trying to make sure someone like Stuart Nash (pugilistic) or Tamati Coffey are gagged until after the election. Either of them, or someone like them, could easily be baited into breaking the COVID Zen Un-engaged spell and making this election into a contest.
Like Comment Share
