National 6.0 Elected

August 18, 2020

By NZB3

That about wraps it up for Labour 6.0, I’m calling it now. Jacinda Ardern’s one-term Government just abandoned their last chance at re-election. New Zealand’s next Prime Minister will be Judith Collins and National (version 6.0) will for our Executive Government for the remainder of the 2020s.

“Unless Labour grow a strategic brain (slim chance, but they might be able to outsource one) this is what the election will be about. Labour will campaign on fear that only they can save you from”- NZB3 (16 July)

“The National Party will win this election if most people agree with their narrative that it’s time to get back to work and get back to play; It’s time to recover. National will accuse Labour of hiding under the sick bed, hiding behind COVID-19, afraid to come out and look the world in the teeth.”– NZB3 (10/August)

Boldness and imagination is not to be expected from this government – and Judith Collins knows it….With considerable justification, however, Collins is betting that such a recovery plan is beyond the capacity of the 2020 Labour Party.”; The Judith Collins-Led National Party: Be Scared – Be Very Scared; Bowalley Road

The reasoning is quite simple. Labour 6.0 are devoid of policy. “You can’t govern the country on a wink and a smile,” as a former Prime Minister once said¹. They had one shot, and that was to employ The Politics of Fear,- “Labour have started off this way but surely they know this fear cannot be sustained? They can’t ride that out for the next 64 days! Who’s afraid of COVID now?”

We’re Doin’ A Sequel

Labour 6.0’s answer to certain doom was to put New Zealand on Level 2 and to Lockdown Auckland City for two weeks! It became the Lockdown Election. Ardern’s Ministry put every other political group behind a wall, their policies and voices dull compared to what they had to campaign against. Labour’s campaign, know it or not, consisted of daily Government briefings, all-pervasive slogans such as “We’ve been here before,” “our team,” “stay safe.” The honey-comb podium was back in prime time. The TVNZ kids educational shows re-launched. Panic buying re-ignited. Masks were back on faces with a vengeance.

Nostalgia is a powerful campaigning tool. We all have shared memories of Lockdown 1. It was new, it was communal, it was done compliantly and we all loved Jacinda and Ashley back then. Many have the tote bags and towels to prove it. Labour needed us to believe again.

“We’ve done this before and we can do it again,” – Ashley Bloomfield; NPR (11 August)

“But we had also prepared for it. And as a team, we have also been here before. We know if we have a plan and stick to it, we can work our way through very difficult and unknown situations.”- Jacinda Ardern; ibid

“We can do this. We’ve done it before, right? And we will do it again.” – Siouxise Wiles, TVNZ (12 August)

“The govt’s big and expensive full page newspaper ads are a bit chilling (and, in effect, partisan). They have a small amount of specific useful info, and lots of manipulative rhetoric designed to discourage any disagreement/challenge etc.” – M. Reddell, Twitter

So; we’re going to do it all over again.”- D. Grant, Twitter

“I thought it was the end
But no my friends this is
When we get to do it all again (Do it all again)
Until the credits role
We got another goal to show
We can do it all again”- Muppets; Ref. Anarkiwi

I am certain Labour would have won the Lockdown Election. I was certain that it would be a Lockdown Election too but I was wrong. In the event, this state only lasted 5 days. Ardern’s move (evening of 11/August) was countered and by yesterday morning (17/August) it was over- the election postponed by a month. Last weekend some behind-the-scenes arm-twisting was done, constitutional measures threatened, and Ardern had to give up her winning move for re-election.

Pretense => Lockdown => Testing => More Cases => Fear => Election Victory

It was well worth a try. And, if Labour 6.0 had managed to leverage an electoral victory off the pretence of one Auckland family of 4 being ill with COVID-19 it would have been brilliant. It would have been the political equivalent of trading-up a paperclip until you owned a house.

How Did Captain Cook Die?

The old election date of 19 September was so soon, Labour could have played out their Lockdown Election that long and won.

As time goes by, New Zealanders become sceptical of Lockdown 2.0. It’s like a telemarketer calling back asking for more after you’ve already given. It’s like Captain Cook coming back to Hawaii one time too many. Labour’s COVID-19 campaign has only so much political capital, they can only ask so much before we will give no more. A second wind, a second wave, would have won the election but only if the election came before the inevitable political fatigue.

The new election date of 17 October is too late, Labour cannot play out the politics of fear for another 60 days! By then, it will long have become tiresome. An albatross around Ardern’s neck. She’ll be Miss Downer, Miss Hide-Under-The-Bed, Miss Power-Down, in a nation of people who want to move forward.

In a nation that wants to actually “keep moving” only Judith Collins offers that option. Ardern and her campaign are static and unequipped to be anything but that because they lack the imagination or the policy to change even if they wanted to. If they don’t change, they’ll lose. If they do change you can be certain they’ve lost already.

National 6.0 is the next Government and, initially, it will be a relief to have a change. Stuart Nash is my pick for the next Labour Party leader once they mean business again. Ardern will quit parliament after her loss and vanish overseas soon after the 2021 Mt Albert Buy Election. The hindsight for Prime Minister Ardern will become the same as it was for Captain Cook in 1779- You should never have tried to go back.

—

1 Robert Muldoon

Note: Cook had excellent relations with the natives of Hawaii and departed after receiving much hospitality. However, trouble with the ship required a return to the friendly natives. This second time was too much, the welcome worn out. Hostile natives stabbed Cook in the neck and he died on the beach, his body dismembered and scattered about the landscape. It’s a lesson.

Update: Why Labour abandoned their sure win; Barry Soper: Election date change was better than uglier alternative; ZB