Judith’s Return

June 13, 2023

By NZB3

You want healthy cynicism at the meta-level about New Zealand politics from an Anarchist not afraid to go out on a limb with bold, testable, predictions? You’ve come to the right place! Judith Collins, previous leader of the National Party, defeated at the 2020 election by Jacinda Ardern’s incumbent Labour 6.0, is coming back. Nobody else is saying this. Not only is she taking the leadership, she’ll be doing it before the 2023 General Election and for all the marbles. Collins will either take Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ office this year or else quit national politics next year having used up all her lives.

Why else do you suppose she’s still there if not to win? She stepped down in favor of Chris Luxon, bore her licks but didn’t slink away or parachute out as predecessors Simon Bridges and Paula Bennet did. Collins was never sticking around to be a back bencher or even a Minister: She’s going for leadership. And this weekend she made her move.

“To Luxon “his” Members work for him and answer to him as if they are his own human resources. Like his staff at Air New Zealand, his old job. Certainly he would have partnered up with an employment and human resources specialist like the new Party President, Sylvia Wood. If not Wood herself. We don’t have political leaders, now, who need to earn their leadership status by convincing independent Members to support them and back them by choice.” – National’s New Wood, NZB3 (2022)

Chris Luxon (Leader) and  Sylvia Wood (National Party President) will be quite aware of the coup taking place even if mainstream commentators are not. Their leadership style is top-down. A Member of Parliament doesn’t represent their voters now: They represent Luxon and Wood. One of the first things Luxon did was conduct individual performance reviews on all his MPs as if he owned them like horses in a stable. Or planes in a hanger. This creates resentment that can be tolerated only if Luxon-Wood are winning. They are not winning. Judith has made her strike.

Luxon’s effeminite campaigning for National has not worked. Chris Hipkins’ campaign is doing much better and thanks to the ‘devil you know’ principle all he needs is to do as well as National to win re-election. Hipkins, BTW, has picked off his rivals for leaderhips whereas Luxon failed to get rid of the Collins at his back. For example, Michael Wood was burned this month (June) over a conflict of interest with Air New Zealand shares. And, Stuart Nash was flicked out weeks earlier for over-stepping his Ministerial powers and directing police; This confirms NZB3’s prediction he was the rising power and threat to Labour’s leaders but also refutes it unless he finds a path back as Collins now is.

National MP Maureen Pugh walks back climate change comments – RNZ (February 2023)

National’s Christopher Luxon takes different position to MP on bilingual signs, NZ Herald (May 2023)

The (short-lived, as time will show) Luxon-Wood National have a flip-flopping problem as well as being trigger-happy with the choker-chain on their MPs. Here are two quick  examples to show what arena Judith Collins is entering here.  In February Maureen Pugh simply asked for evidence of antroprogenic climate change out loud in public for which Luxon-Wood cracked their whip and made their Pugh puppet recant and shrink back to her corner! What a discipline signal to the caucus.  In May,  Simeon Brown started a popular campaign and a national debate about bilingual roadsigns but Luxon-Wood crippled it within hours. Instead it became a story about flip-floppin’ National. But what could Luxon do? Simeon Brown evidently invented this side-quest on his own without Luxon-Wood permission. Yes, busting him like Pugh cost National in public but Luxon-Wood had to weigh that against party discipline. If Brown could make up policy without being slapped then so could any Nat MP in this very tight ship. Luxon-Wood picked discipline and slapped Brown down.

Enter Judith Collins. Just before Saturday a publicity bomb with her name on it hit the media and it was all about “National’s” new Genetic Engineering policy platform. Court Wizard Peter Gluckman was deployed to do the press for Judith. I surmise that Luxon-Wood knew absolutely nothing about this and it was all Collins all the way. If it were such a good idea and signed off by the leadership they would have taken it from Collins and said it was their idea, after all.

What to do? Slap Judith down like Pugh and Brown to discipline the horses? Ah, but that will only confirm to the public that National are hopeless and can’t get their game together. We wont elect a flip-flopping indecisive rabble. This would be once too often. So, Luxon-Wood had to run with this. They had to play the Yes, And Game.

As Collins would have been well aware in advance, Luxon was the feature interview on TV1’s Q&A with Jack Tame on Saturday morning. Poor Luxon must have had a crash course in Genetic Modification so he could face this interview and the press! All at the behest of Collins who had now made Luxon HER puppet and sent him to school to learn HER lines about GE! In the RNZ photo (left) Collins smugly overlooks Luxon doing her dance and so does MP  Sam Uffindell (what’s he got to do with this?) Ref. National would end genetic modification ‘ban’ if elected, RNZ (11 July)

“Jack Tames put Christopher Luxon through a right grilling, in one of the ugliest and most uncomfortable interviews I’ve seen for a long time. There was body language galore from the tense looking Tame in his opening remarks to the rather grim and forced end. Neither man looked at ease and Luxon was positively gritting his teeth while giving a very forced smile – more a grimace…Luxon time and again went into corporate speak, rather than give a direct answer to the question. How many times did Tame ask Luxon to give examples of any dangers from GM? “We will make it crystal clear. . . “and into another round of slippery bumph. It’s Luxon’s weakness..Not pleasant viewing. Or listening.” – Oamaru Today, Facebook (12 June)

I heard Luxon compared to ‘The Fat Controller’ character from Thomas The Tankengine on the Iron Duke podcast and I’m sure they’re not the only ones saying that. It’s not only that they look alike it’s that that’s really who Luxon is except with planes not trains. Or, now, with National Members of Parliament rather than trains. But if Thomas & Friends don’t like being controlled and the Nat MHRs outright detest it. It only lasts while Luxon is winning and, of course, he isn’t. Judith Collins may or may not have eager Genetic Engineeirs lining up to invest in her future Ministry and current election campaign; A new New Zealand industry. What he has engineeired is an opportunity for Luxon to be caught out and hammered so he will look weak and therefore be unable to Boss his MPs. They don’t see themselves as trains, planes, horses, or staff subject to ‘performance reviews’. They see themselves as Members of the House of Representitives; Very Important People. Collins relied on Jack Tame as a foil for her plan to run Luxon down and he didn’t disappoint. Nor did her Science Wizard, Sir Peter Gluckman. Collins herself hasn’t even gotten her own hands dirty in any of this.

Sure, Collins can play more cards if she needs to. I’m betting she will instead let Luxon fall in under his own weight and take his forgettable nodding Deputy Nicola Willis with him. Sensing blood, Luxon will be gone before the election as ‘his’ MPs sense losing their seats if they don’t try something else: Judith. With every day that passes it will be easier to see that Collins, not Luxon, has a far better shot at out-witting, out-debating, out-playing, Chris Hipkins. Sylvia Wood will be harder to get rid of but an easier job for Prime Minister Judith in 2024.

Tell me I’m wrong.

—
Image ref. Judith Collins biography, Pull no Punches (2020)

Ref. Judith’s Gambit, NZB3 (2020)

Like    Comment     Share